★ Rapid Increase in China’s Alumina Supply, Significant Changes in Supply-Demand Dynamics
China’s new alumina production capacity is being rapidly released, while electrolytic aluminum capacity remains stable, making the oversupply of alumina increasingly prominent. Chinese alumina producers urgently need to expand export markets to balance the domestic supply-demand structure.
Since late 2025, China’s long-term alumina contract prices have gradually exceeded spot prices. Some electrolytic aluminum producers have begun to reduce the proportion of long-term contract purchases while increasing spot alumina procurement, aiming to optimize cost structures and enhance purchasing flexibility.
★ Potential of Indonesia’s Aluminum Industry Unleashed, Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Overseas Investment
Leveraging resource supply and overall cost advantages, Chinese enterprises are accelerating investments in alumina and electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia, which will further drive the export growth of auxiliary materials such as aluminum fluoride and prebaked anodes.
★ Guinea Strengthens Mining Permit Management, Supply Growth May Slow
From mid-2025, Guinea has strengthened mining permit management and revoked a large number of permits, slowing the growth of bauxite supply. To ensure supply chain security, Chinese alumina producers need to actively develop diversified import channels from Australia, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Turkey, Brazil, and other countries.
