Sumitomo Metal sees global nickel market in surplus again in 2027

Japan's top nickel smelter, Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM), said Tuesday that the global nickel market is expected to remain in surplus next year as Indonesian output recovers on potentially higher mining quotas and lower sulphur and sulphuric acid prices.

SMM forecasts a global nickel surplus of 34,000 metric tons in 2027, down from 38,000 tons this year. Indonesian production of low-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) is expected to rebound 11.9% to 1.88 million tons, according to the company's half-year market outlook.

Indonesian NPI output is seen falling 2.3% in 2026 after a 12.4% rise in 2025, reflecting government cuts to mining quotas. Indonesia accounts for more than 60% of global nickel output.

Global nickel demand is projected to grow 6% to 3.92 million tons in 2027, supported by steady stainless steel consumption and rising demand for speciality steel used in AI data centres. Supply is expected to rise 5.8% to 3.96 million tons.

Class 1 nickel is high-purity refined metal used in batteries and other applications, while Class 2 mainly consists of NPI and ferronickel used in stainless steel.