Chile's copper output projected to decline 2.6% in 2026 before 2027 recovery, Cochilco reports

Chile's copper production is forecast to dip by 2.6% this year to 5.27 million metric tons, before staging a recovery in 2027, according to the state-run copper commission Cochilco. The agency attributed the weaker 2026 outlook to underwhelming output at state-owned giant Codelco and BHP's Chilean operations, alongside an exceptionally poor performance in the first half of the year.

Cochilco noted that production declines at Codelco and BHP's Escondida and Spence mines, coupled with structural constraints across multiple operations, have weighed heavily on the forecast. However, the agency expects a partial rebound in the second half, driven by improvements at Codelco's El Teniente mine, progress at the state miner's Rajo Inca project, greater operational stability at Teck's Quebrada Blanca, normalization at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde, and enhanced ore grades and water availability at Collahuasi---the mine jointly owned by Anglo American, Glencore, and a Japanese consortium. Antofagasta-operated Los Pelambres was also cited by Cochilco as a key contributor to the anticipated 2027 recovery.

Looking ahead to 2027, Cochilco projects Chilean output will rebound to 5.55 million tons, supported by a low comparative baseline and the gradual ramp-up of operations. The main drivers of this recovery are expected to include Codelco, Quebrada Blanca, Escondida, Collahuasi, Los Pelambres, and Mantoverde.

On the demand side, Cochilco forecasts global copper consumption at 27.8 million tons in 2026, representing a 1.9% increase year-on-year, led predominantly by China. Chinese demand is expected to rise 2.7% to 16 million tons, accounting for 57.6% of the global total.