Global Refined Copper Market Expected to Move into Surplus in 2026, Says Industry Group

According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market is projected to return to a surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026, reversing a previously anticipated deficit of 150,000 tons. The shift is attributed to weaker demand growth and a rise in secondary production.

Looking ahead to 2027, the organization forecasts a surplus of 377,000 metric tons, while cautioning that geopolitical tensions-such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East-and shifting trade patterns could affect market balances.

Global refined copper consumption is now expected to grow by just 1.6% in 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 2.1%, followed by a 2% increase in 2027.

The ICSG noted that Chinese demand is projected to rise by 1.9% in 2026, with other regions seeing 1.3% growth. Consumption in the European Union and Japan is likely to remain subdued, while Asia continues to be the primary driver of global demand.

Global refined copper production is forecast to expand by 0.4% in 2026, constrained by limited concentrate availability-though partly offset by higher secondary output-before accelerating to 3% growth in 2027, as concentrate supply improves and new capacity comes online.

Copper mine output is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, revised downward from 2.3%, due to slower expansion in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia, as well as operational constraints at the Grasberg and Kamoa mines following disruptions in 2025.

In 2027, mine output is projected to rise by 2.3%, supported by the ramp-up of new capacity, improved production in Chile and Zambia, and higher operating rates in Indonesia and the DRC.