In comparison to the big rise and fall in 2011 and 2012, the rare earth market remained relatively stable during 2013. Excessive expansion in capacity and less demand for the application of rare earths in China threw the once promising industry into recession. Despite once high expectations, the domestic Chinese market witnessed a two-year roller coaster ride resulting in a steep downward trend for prices.
End user consumption of rare earths remained weak due to slow economic recovery around the globe during the first half of 2013, meaning participants returned to hand-to-mouth procurement strategies. The resulting oversupply intensified competition among suppliers and resulted in prices slumping. In the second half of the year, the Chinese government strengthened its regulation of the industry, cracking down on smuggling and illegal mining, and commencing a new round of stockpiling. These combined to improve suppliers’ confidence in the future of the market and prices in China. However, personal gains and missions collided during subsequent attempts to integrate the industry further, leading to intensified competition for business between local and central, private and state-owned enterprises. Striking a balance over the coming year will be difficult.
Other industry changes are also afoot. Rare earth production capacity continues to expand outside of China, increasing the global pool of lanthanide sources. A preliminary ruling from the World Trade Organization is eventually likely to put further pressure on China to alter its export policies significantly. Although the diversified rare earth supply that this can create would undoubtedly increase the industry’s transparency, a reduction in export prices by cancelling quotas and duties will bring about another round of shock and instability for rare earth producers and downstream industries outside of China.
Faced with unprecedented opportunities and challenges, the global rare earth market looks set to alter at every stage of the supply chain.
Looking to 2014, there are many questions that require answers: Can the Chinese rare earth market successfully rejuvenate? When will demand from downstream users increase? Can enhanced integration of industrial chains bring changes and developments to the industry or not? Will diversified rare earth supply around the globe promote sound and steady development in the market?
Asian Metal invites everyone to Nanning to discuss the future trends of the rare earth market, and look for opportunities and directions for the development of the industry as a whole.
