Bismuth demand to keep growing

Asian Metal: Hello Robin, and welcome to Asian Metal's interview. First, could you briefly introduce your company's bismuth project?

Robin: Fortune Minerals' NICO project hosts one of the world's largest bismuth deposits, accounting for approximately 12% of global bismuth reserves, or about 46.3 million kg. The project is designed to produce three critical minerals – cobalt, bismuth and copper – along with gold as a by-product. Fortune Minerals is advancing its vertically integrated NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper project, which comprises a planned mine and concentrator in Canada's Northwest Territories and a dedicated refinery in Alberta. Concentrates from the mine and other feedstock sources will be processed at the refinery into value-added products for the energy transition, emerging technologies and defense applications. These products will include bismuth ingots, bismuth oxide, battery-grade cobalt sulphate, dore gold and copper cement. Fortune Minerals discovered the NICO deposit in 1996 and has since invested more than C$150 million in advancing this grassroots discovery into a development asset that is approaching construction readiness. The NICO project has received environmental assessment approval and major mining permits in the Northwest Territories. It has also completed positive feasibility and front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies, which are now being updated in preparation for a potential final investment decision (FID) in 2027. To accelerate project development and address rising capital costs, Fortune Minerals acquired a brownfield site in Alberta's Industrial Heartland for its hydrometallurgical refinery. The area is an established hub for petrochemical and critical minerals processing. The 77-acre site is adjacent to Canadian National Railway infrastructure and includes a 42,000-square-foot ancillary workshop and associated equipment left over from a previous steelmaking operation. The site has received municipal zoning approval for heavy industrial use and is close to a skilled labour pool, as well as the services and reagents required for hydrometallurgical processing. In addition, Fortune Minerals has established a process collaboration with Rio Tinto, which will enable the company to increase bismuth production in Alberta by processing residues from Rio Tinto's Kennecott smelter in the United States.

Asian Metal: What strategic considerations prompted your company to move forward with the bismuth concentrate production line? How long has the project been underway, and what have been its key milestones and decisions?

Robin: NICO is an iron oxide copper-gold (IOCG) deposit, a deposit type represented by several world-class examples, including Olympic Dam in Australia, the Carajás deposits in Brazil and mines in Chile's Candelaria district. When Fortune Minerals discovered NICO in 1996, it was exploring for deposits of this type. What makes NICO distinctive is its high bismuth content, alongside cobalt, gold and copper. The project's economics depend on the combined production of these metals, making a dedicated refinery essential to maximizing metal recoveries. Bismuth and cobalt supply chains are vulnerable due to the geographic concentration of production, political instability and/or policy risks in current source countries. Metal concentrates are often shipped to other countries for processing, resulting in the loss of downstream value and control over the metals, while making it difficult to ensure that products are available to domestic manufacturers. Western governments are actively working to secure critical minerals supply chains and reduce dependence on China. NICO will become a vertically integrated source of three critical minerals, with both the mine and refinery located in Canada, making it a strategically important North American asset. The NICO refinery further enhances the project's strategic significance because it will also be able to process critical minerals feedstock from other sources. Fortune Minerals' collaboration with Rio Tinto, under which residues from the Kennecott smelter in the United States will be processed to increase bismuth production in Alberta, is a case in point. The strategic importance of bismuth was further highlighted in 2025, when Apple, Amazon, Google and Nvidia warned of shipment delays involving Chinese bismuth solder paste used in AI data center connectivity and other technology applications, following Beijing's export restrictions imposed in response to US tariffs.

Asian Metal: Once the project reaches full production, what position will your company hold in the domestic and global bismuth concentrate markets? How do you view the current global bismuth supply landscape?

Robin: Fortune Minerals' NICO project is expected to produce approximately 1,700 tonnes of bismuth ingots and bismuth oxide annually. China currently accounts for approximately 80% of global bismuth mine production and 90% of refined bismuth supply, while the global market is estimated at around 25,000 tonnes per year. Most global bismuth production comes as a by-product of tungsten mining or lead processing and smelting. China also controls approximately 60% of global bismuth reserves. The NICO deposit is the world's largest bismuth deposit, accounting for approximately 12% of global reserves.

Asian Metal: The bismuth market has remained strong recently. What are the main factors behind the firmness in prices so far this year?

Robin: New applications are driving demand growth and supporting prices. Traditional uses of bismuth include glass and corrosion-resistant coatings, brake pad abrasives, paints and pigments, low-melting-point and dimensionally stable alloys and castings, as well as pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, growing consumption of bismuth in industrial, environmental, technological and defense applications is creating additional demand. These applications include a non-toxic substitute for lead in brass, solders, free-machining steels and aluminum, ceramic glazes and ammunition; Bismuth-tin plugs used for the effective plugging and abandonment of decommissioned oil and gas wells; Heat-resistant manganese-bismuth magnets as alternatives to rare earth magnets; Nuclear fuel processing, reactor coolants and radiation shielding; High-speed, low-heat electrical interconnects and solders for AI data centers; Next-generation semiconductors reportedly offering speeds 40% faster and energy efficiency 10% higher than silicon-based chips; Lightweight electric vehicle battery casings, charging infrastructure and electrical hardware; Fuses, transistors and high-performance electrical connectors; Rocket and missile fuels, as well as propellants for ammunition.

Asian Metal: What is your outlook for the bismuth market in 2027?

Robin: We expect prices to remain firm as bismuth consumption in emerging technologies continues to grow. Meanwhile, price divergence between Chinese and Western markets is likely to widen further as Western countries pursue supply chain diversification and security.

Asian Metal: How was downstream demand and consumption of bismuth in 2026? What is your outlook for 2027?

Robin: Bismuth has unique physical and chemical properties that make it difficult to replace with other metals in many applications. With a more diversified range of supply sources, we expect the market to expand further. Global bismuth demand is estimated at approximately 25,000 tonnes, and independent analysts forecast annual market growth of around 7.5%.

Asian Metal: China has imposed export controls on bismuth ingots this year. Do you think this presents a new opportunity for producers in other parts of the world?

Robin: Yes. The global market is actively seeking alternative sources of supply. Fortune Minerals maintains a list of more than 130 prospective customers outside China. Just 40 of these companies account for more than 10,000 tonnes of bismuth demand. This figure does not include large prospective customers that have not disclosed their annual consumption to Fortune Minerals. Our target is to produce approximately 1,700 tonnes per year, excluding any additional material that may be processed through the collaboration with Rio Tinto.

Asian Metal: What are your company's plans for expanding its bismuth business in 2027?

Robin: Fortune Minerals is currently completing updated feasibility and front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies, with the aim of advancing the project to a final investment decision (FID) in 2027. Subject to securing project financing, construction is expected to take approximately two years before commercial operations commence. Initial production is projected at around 1,700 tonnes per year, with additional output possible through the processing of feedstock from other sources.

Asian Metal: Thank you for taking the time to speak with Asian Metal. We wish your company continued success in the future!

Robin: Thank you very much.