India's demand for aluminum fluoride to keep growing
----Interview with Sarat Chowdhary
Managing Director
Thyme Europe Limited
- Thyme Europe Limited, set up in 2018, is an international trading company with offices and representatives in UK, USA, Germany, the UAE, and India. The company's businesses cover a wide range of metals, minerals, chemicals, refractory raw materials and machineries for steel and aluminum. The company has a team of experienced and knowledgeable members who have a deep understanding of the market and its dynamics, and also has a strong network of suppliers and customers, which gives it a competitive advantage.
- Asian Metal: Welcome to join the interview. Kindly please introduce your company business briefly.
- Sarat Chowdhary: We source minerals and chemicals from the most reliable and cost-effective suppliers, and then arrange the transportation and storage. We help our customers to manage the risks associated with the trading. We sold over 5,000t of aluminum fluoride in 2023, down from around 20,000t in 2022.
- Asian Metal: In early Q4 2023, Chinese aluminum fluoride export prices increased, so many buyers turned to other overseas suppliers. Did you purchase from China in Q4? How about your overall purchase volume from China in 2023 and 2022?
- Sarat Chowdhary: Chinese products lost their competitive edge significantly in the second half of 2023. In comparison to 2022, our purchase volume from China in 2023 fell by 80% to around 4,000t. Supported by increased fluorspar prices, the average export prices of aluminum fluoride in Q4 2023 reached around USD1,350/t FOB China, much higher than USD1,300/t FOB Italy. In the second half of 2023, we lost many orders.
- Asian Metal: Besides China, where do you purchase aluminum fluoride and how about the proportion? Will you increase the purchase volume from other countries in 2024?
- Sarat Chowdhary: We started aluminum fluoride business in 2018 with the average sales volume of around 20,000tpy and we bought mainly from China. The current situation demands substantial changes as suppliers from other countries offer far more lucrative rates, better terms, and contracts with longer validity. The other available option is Serbia with the market share less than 5%. As aluminum fluoride producers in Italy and Mexico mainly sell to end users directly, we will continue focusing on the Chinese market.
- Asian Metal: Where do your end users come from? Is there any change this year compared with last year? How do you think of the current import demand from India? What is your outlook for 2024?
- Sarat Chowdhary: We are vendors to some of the largest smelters in the world like India and Bahrain who have the combined requirement of around 100,000tpy, up by around 10% YoY, with around 30,000t from Bahrain. India is the fastest-growing economy in the world now, and would see the largest growth in aluminum fluoride demand. The current growth is sustainable and we expected a total import volume of over 80,000t in 2023, while we forecast over 10% growth in 2024.
- Asian Metal: How do you think of the purchase demand from other major countries in 2024?
- Sarat Chowdhary: The demand for aluminum fluoride would keep growing in the worldwide except China, which is cutting production as it faces glut. It is believed that that the global demand growth will continue at least till 2026 and the growth is mainly from India and the Middle East. I think the growth in the Middle East might reach 15% YoY in 2024.
- Asian Metal: What is your forecast for the aluminum fluoride prices in China and Europe in the first half of 2024?
- Sarat Chowdhary: Europe cannot afford to increase prices as they risk in losing business to UAE & China. China cannot afford to keep the prices as high as the level in 2023, as it already lost substantial export market share. By March 2024, prices from China might range USD1,175-1,225/t FOB China and prices in Europe are expected at USD1,250-1,275/t FOB Europe.
- Asian Metal: Due to the escalated geographical tensions in the Suez Canal, the freight increased. Will that continue? And how about the freight from China to India?
- Sarat Chowdhary: Our business is not affected by the situation right now. I think it is temporary and tensions might ease by February. The current freight from China to India is around USD1,000 per container and I think the cost might reduce by 10% in late January after the busy season in December.
- Asian Metal: Could you introduce your purchase and sales strategy in 2024?
- Sarat Chowdhary: We are committed to providing our customers with the highest quality products and services as well as sustainable development and environmental protection. We target at around 40,000t of sales in 2024 and we are confident.
- Asian Metal: Wish your company better sales achievements in 2024!
- Sarat Chowdhary: Thanks for the interview.
