Magnesium ingot prices to increase in Q1
----Interview with Haibo Su
Vice President
Fugu Xintian Magnesium Alloy Co., Ltd.
- Fugu Xintian Magnesium Alloy Co., Ltd. was established in 2008. The plant is located in the hinterland of Shenfu coalfield development zone, the national energy heavy chemical base, Gaoshan charcoal industrial concentration area, Xinmin town, Fugu county. With a total investment of RMB800 million, the company reaches an annual output of 50,000t of magnesium ingot, 40,000t of ferrosilicon, and 250,000t of clean carbon.
- Asian Metal: Mr. Su, thanks for taking the interview by Asian Metal. Please introduce your business briefly.
- Mr. Su: Thanks for your invitation! It is a great honor to receive the interview with Asian Metal. Fugu Xintian Magnesium Alloy Co., Ltd. was established in 2008 and owned three departments and two branches. With a total investment of RMB800 million, the company could achieve an annual output of 50,000t of magnesium ingot, 40,000t of ferrosilicon, and 250,000t of clean carbon. Our company's main business is magnesium ingot. The current daily production capacity of magnesium ingot is 150t, including 50t of magnesium ingot 95%minB , 120t of ferrosilicon 75%min , 700t of clean carbon, and 50t of reduction tanks.
- Asian Metal: As one of the magnesium ingot producers in Shaanxi province that tried to adopt the vertical tank smelting process, please introduce the advantages and bottlenecks of vertical tank production.
- Mr. Su: Under the background of the aging of industry personnel and the urgency of Dual Control Policy, our company withstood the pressure and overcame all difficulties, and took the lead in trying using the vertical tank smelting process. After more than two years' exploration, I think that the vertical tank project has many advantages, such as economic space occupation, low labor intensity, easy automation, low energy consumption, and convenient environmental protection comprehensive management. Additionally, there are many bottlenecks such as large single investment, high technical difficulties, high requirements for fine management and lack of technical personnel. Although the vertical tank project is in full production in our plant, it is still in the exploratory stage.
- Asian Metal: Facing the opportunities and challenges brought by the frequent market fluctuations of magnesium industry in 2021, how did your company react and seek a balance between them?
- Mr. Su: In early 2021, China took the lead in getting out of the haze of the epidemic. In the context of the dual circular economy development, China became the engine of the world economy. We encountered the old routine of the USA, gave full play to the advantages of our country's entire industry, and led the recovery of the world economy. With the recovery of economy and the urgent need of basic products, the coal-based raw material industry had ushered in a turnaround. Looking back of the market in 2021, we should clearly know the underlying logic behind the rise in bulk materials. Additionally, we must respect objective laws, keep our original intentions, and give back to the healthy and sustainable development of the magnesium industry in a consistent way. In Q1 of 2021, the magnesium ingot market can be described as a tepid state and prices hovered at the range of RMB14,500-15,500/t (USD2,279-2,437/t) EXW D/P; In Q2, it was not a coincidence that the coal price in May reached RMB1,000/t (USD157/t) and mainstream prices for magnesium ingot achieved at around RMB20,000/t (USD3,144/t). It was the inevitable result of the following factors, the first was the mismatch between supply and demand, and the second was the ample capital. Therefore, mainstream prices for magnesium ingot in Q2 hovered at the range of RMB17,000-18,000/t (USD2,672-2,830/t) as suppliers intended to lock reasonable profits to prevent emotional risks. In Q3, the Dual Control Policy and industry upgrading tightened, which added mismatch of the balance between supply and demand. I have reviewed the magnesium ingot market in 2008 and found that there were similarities and differences with the situations in 2021, so I sold the metal in advance at the range of RMB20,000-45,000/t (USD3,144-7,075/t) EXW D/P during that period; In Q4, owing to 15 days' production suspension in late September and early October, magnesium ingot prices increased to RMB70,000/t (USD11,006/t) EXW D/P sharply. Our company resumed 50% of the production on 6th October. In order to maintain our reputation and customers' interests, we finalized all signed contracts before 15th October. In the reminder days of October, customers continued to lock the metal at RMB47,000/t (USD7,389/t). On 19th October, the document for coal price restriction was issued, and the prices for magnesium ingot entered the era of RMB30,000/t (USD4,716/t) in November. After November 15th, under the background of abundant macro funds, magnesium ingot market still ushered in a wave of return. Presently, mainstream magnesium ingot prices reached higher than RMB50,000 (USD7,911/t), and the mismatch between supply and demand sustains.
- Asian Metal: Generally speaking, industry extension and product diversification should be two ways for magnesium plants to enhance market competitiveness and diversify market risks. Does your company have relevant considerations in 2022?
- Mr. Su: Yes, facing a complex market environment, the extension of the industrial chain should be the best resistance, while we are more inclined to emancipate our minds. We prefer to be brave innovation and will concentrate our limited energy on cultivation under the background of Dual Control Policy and strict environmental control requirements.
- Asian Metal: As far as I know, under the multiple pressures of the "Dual Control Policy" in 2021, the regular environmental protection requirements, and the sharp increase in raw material prices, some suppliers showed their pressures in early Q4 and their implementations were relatively weak. How did your company respond? In this process, what is the core of the continuous development for a company?
- Mr. Su: We believe that we should respect objective laws. The rise in coal prices would affect people's livelihoods and power security, and policy interventions were expected to be strengthened. If you could foresee the inflection point, you must restrain your emotions. Under the thinking of low inventory, even if production was stopped, the loss would be smaller than that caused by the plunge of magnesium ingot. The bonus period from scratch was running out. Only innovation would be the best way in the future. From our point, we could make continuous innovation in technology, management and thinking complying with industrial policies and environmental standards.
- Asian Metal: In terms of market supply, China's magnesium ingot supply accounts for 85% of the global supply, and the Fugu region accounts for 65% of the national production. In recent years, the whole industry both in China and overseas market keep paying close attention to the price fluctuation in Fugu. As one of Fugu's mainstream producers, how do you think plants should perform in the market supply and price mechanism?
- Mr. Su: As for price mechanism, the net inflow and outflow of capital could be the driving force for the price fluctuation. Subjective sentiments should be restrained, and 70% to 80% of the goods ought to be locked within the upper and lower limits under the background of capital, so as to contribute to the sustainable development of the upstream and downstream of the industry. The rest 20% to 30% of the goods should be used to respect the objective and returned to the original intention, and combined with the coexistence of point prices, long-term orders, advance sales, warehousing and distribution. Our company's annual production capacity could reach 50,000t. With the stable supply, we will focus on diversified magnesium products.
- Asian Metal: Under the background of the overheated economy in 2021, combined with the policy of "Carbon Neutrality and Emission Peak", mainstream prices for magnesium ingot increased sharply to the highest point in the past 10 years. The industry had lingering fears about the magnesium market under the policy. What should be the key point to influence magnesium prices in 2022?
- Mr. Su: Under the premise of the light weight trend and assumption of growing demand for magnesium, there are three key points to affect the magnesium ingot price. First, it belonged to the monetary easing policy and China's economy in the context of macroeconomics trends and pressures. Second, it should be the Dual Control Policy, the environmental protection policies, and the pressure of eliminating outdated production capacity and upgrading. Third, it should be the inflation and stagnation on the cost and human resources side, high price of coal and ferrosilicon, and increased personnel shortages. The macroeconomic background determines the basic level and unit fluctuation range of the magnesium ingot prices at the range of RMB10,000-40,000/t (USD1,582-6,329/t). Additionally, the core of the price surge for magnesium ingot was caused by the excessive US dollar.
- Asian Metal: How do you think about the market movements in Q1? Based on relevant considerations, what about your countermeasures?
- Mr. Su: Let's discuss the market trend in Q1 of 2022. The turmoil of the epidemic has stabilized after the Spring Festival holidays. Under the operation of the central bank to cut interest rates, the overall performance of funds is good. The Dual Control Policy and environmental protection requirements continue existing and even to upgrade. In terms of cost, as the mismatch between supply and demand continues, the impact from cost on magnesium prices is relatively limited. If the equipment upgrade is progressing moderately, then the market in Q1 is likely to continue to go up on basis of RMB40,000/t (USD6,329/t). If the upgrade is requested to accomplish overnight, the market prices would possibly increase sharply again to around RMB70,000/t (USD11,006/t). Additionally, although the Federal Reserve has proposed a plan to reduce QE at the macro level, the authoritative agency predicts that the interest rate hike will not happen in Q1.
- Asian Metal: Thanks for accepting the interview with Asian Metal. I wish Xintian Magnesium Alloy to make still further progress!
- Mr. Su: Thank you! All of above only represents my personal views. Please forgive me for any improprieties. I hope that Asian Metal will continue providing the industry with more authoritative magnesium market consulting based on objective and fair principles.
